Golden Nugget Online Gaming
2021年9月6日Register here: http://gg.gg/vwx9q
© Source: Maridav/Shutterstock, Inc. a woman smiling while using a slot machine in a casino. representing gambling stocks
*Golden Nugget Online Gaming Investor Relations
*Golden Nugget Online Gaming Offerings
*Golden Nugget Online Gaming Stock
About GNOG Golden Nugget Online Gaming, Inc. Is a leading online casino gaming company that is indirectly wholly owned by Tilman J. It is considered the market leader by its peers and was. Golden Nugget Online Gaming offers a variety of deposit & withdrawal methods to ensure all players have a streamlined & convenient gaming experience.
About Golden Nugget Online Gaming. Golden Nugget Online Gaming is a leading online gaming company that is considered a market leader by its peers and was first to bring Live Dealer and Live Casino.
With Golden Nugget Online Gaming (NASDAQ:GNOG) facing massive uncertainty on multiple fronts, investors should avoid GNOG stock for now.© Provided by InvestorPlace a woman smiling while using a slot machine in a casino. representing gambling stocks
As I’ve noted in the past, Golden Nugget has to deal with a lot of competition in the online gambling space.
The approaching end of the novel-coronavirus pandemic and the precarious financial position of Golden Nugget’s owner are also making GNOG stock riskier.
As I wrote in my Sept. 28 column on Golden Nugget, online gambling is set for fast growth, but there’s not too high a bar to entry. As companies continue to enter the online gaming space, Golden Nugget could get squeezed.
I cited MGM Resorts (NYSE:MGM) as one large, tough potential competitor for Golden Nugget. The company received meaningful financial backing from internet giant IAC (NASDAQ:IAC). And indeed, MGM has already launched sports-betting operations, along with online card games, in New Jersey, the only state in which Golden Nugget Online Gaming was reportedly licensed as of Dec. 15.More Competition, the Pandemic and GNOG Stock
Another tough competitor for Golden Nugget is Rush Street Interactive (NYSE:RSI), or RSI, which operates an online-gaming and sports-betting company in New Jersey and Pennsylvania.
According to a Seeking Alpha contributor, WY Capital, RSI is the number one player in iGaming. Game slot cashback 100. The article claims RSA has a 16.3% market share, mostly thanks to its presence in Pennsylvania where it has a 28% market share.
Moreover, Golden Nugget is planning to expand into Pennsylvania where, by the way, BetMGM, MGM’s online component has also set up shop.
Gallery: 4 Entertainment Stocks That Could Bounce Back Post-Quarantine (InvestorPlace)
RSI could take market share away from Golden Nugget. With vaccines for the coronavirus being continuously distributed in the U.S., within the next four or five months, a majority of the population will likely have been vaccinated against the coronavirus.
At that point, the popularity of online gambling is likely to drop sharply as tens of millions of vaccinated consumers, beyond tired of sitting at home and looking at screens, take vacations and go to movies, restaurants, sporting events, etc.
Thus, there’s a good chance that Golden Nuggets’ growth in New Jersey could sharply decelerate starting this spring, causing the company’s financial results to tumble and resulting in a big slump by GNOG stock.Fertitta’s Financial Woes
Last month, InvestorPlace’s Sarah Smith noted that Tilman Fertitta, Golden Nugget’s founder and owner, had “been discussing an initial public offering for some of his holdings.”
As a result, investors may wonder whether Fertitta could look to sell some of his GNOG stock, causing the shares to tumble.
And as Smith noted, the billionaire has “borrowed hundreds of millions of dollars,” generally creating uncertainty for his empire, including Golden Nugget Online Gaming.
Perhaps partly due to Fertitta’s issues, since Dec. 29, when the SPAC with which Golden Nugget combined, Lancadia Holdings II, became Golden Nugget Online Gaming, the shares have tumbled nearly 20%.The Bottom Line on GNOG Stock
Golden Nugget is facing tough competition and uncertainties related to the finances of its owner and the coming end of the coronavirus pandemic.
Meanwhile, the company’s second-quarter operating income from New Jersey operations came in at a not-exactly-huge $8.5 million.
Given these points, I believe that the stock’s risk-reward ratio is negative, and I continue to recommend that investors sell it.
On the date of publication, Larry Ramer did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.
Larry has conducted research and written articles on U.S. stocks for 13 years. He has been employed by The Fly and Israel’s largest business newspaper, Globes. Among his highly successful contrarian picks have been solar stocks, Roku, and Snap. You can reach him on StockTwits at @larryramer. Larry began writing columns for InvestorPlace in 2015.© Source: rawf8/Shutterstock.com A man looking at a computer with poker chips on the screen.
Golden Nugget Online Gaming (NASDAQ:GNOG) went public on Dec. 30, after merging with a SPAC (special purpose acquisition company) called Landcandia Holdings II. Based on my calculations, GNOG stock is worth considerably more, up to 65% more, based on a simple comparison with Draft Kings (NASDAQ:DKNG).© Provided by InvestorPlace A man looking at a computer with poker chips on the screen.
Keep in mind that Golden Nugget Online Gaming is not in any way related to Golden Nugget Casinos (based in Las Vegas and Laughlin).
That company is privately held by Tilman Fertitta. However, Fertitta’s interests do own about 52% of GNOG stock, but we don’t yet know the exact amount of shares for two reasons.Golden Nugget Online Gaming Merger
First, it appears that Golden Nugget Online Gaming does not even have its own investor relations website yet. Its NJ gaming site does not have any information on the company as a public entity. Second, the company has not filed with the SEC its final share count information, nor have Fertitta’s interests filed.
Moreover, this deal was a little different than most SPAC mergers. There was no PIPE deal (private investment in public equity) with institutional investors. That is a great thing for the public investors since they now own about 46% of the GNOG stock. This is based on nothing more than page 5 of the company’s investor presentation from July.
It is also the reason why it took two shareholder meetings in December for the deal to close. Moreover, this is making the stock a bit more volatile than most other SPAC mergers. For example, it appears a lot of investors have been selling their shares in GNOG since the merger closed on Dec. 30.
Nevertheless, after carefully studying the company’s presentation and its Q3 earnings report, GNOG stock is worth considerably more than its present price. Here is why.What Golden Nugget Online Gaming Is Worth
GNOG stock is trading for about 12 times its revenue on an enterprise value basis. But DKNG stock trades at about 19.5 times EV-to-sales.
Gallery: 7 Stocks Warren Buffett Should Consider (InvestorPlace)
Therefore, assuming both companies should have a similar or fairly similar valuation as the only two online gaming stocks, GNOG should move up in value. This implies that GNOG stock should trade about $33.92 per share or 65% above its price on Jan. 5 ($20.59).
Here is how I came up with this valuation calculation. First, the slide presentation from the original June 29 announcement indicates on page 5 that about 68.3 million shares will be outstanding. Therefore at today’s price, the market capitalization for GNOG stock is $1.406 billion.
Next, to derive the pro forma enterprise value, we need to add in the net debt after the merger closed. We won’t know the final numbers until its Q4 earnings release later this month. But the presentation indicates there will be $150 million in debt and $88 million in cash. That works to net debt of $62 million. Therefore, the enterprise value (EV) is $1.468 billion.
Now we can estimate the company’s pro forma 2021 enterprise value-to-sales ratio. Based on its presentation, again on page 5, Golden Nugget Online Gaming will make $122 million in sales during 2021. This also corresponds with its Q3 numbers where it made $25.9 million in net revenue. On a run-rate basis, that works out to $103.6 million. the 2021 estimate of $122 million in gaming sales assumes 17.7% growth during 2021.
As a result, we can derive the EV-to-sales ratio by dividing $1.468 billion (EV) by $122 million (2021 sales estimate). That works out to 12 times.
This is significantly below DraftKings’ EV-to-sale ratio. Based on my estimates their valuation is 19.5 EV-to-sales.What to Do With GNOG Stock
Based on this information we can multiply 19.5 times the $122 million in 2021 sales. That gives GNOG stock a $2.379 billion EV. After subtracting the $62 million in net debt, the target market cap should be $2.317 billion. Now, since we know there are 68.3 million shares (see above), the price should be $33.92. This price is 65% above its $20.59 price on Jan. 5.
Fortune spins. Online sports betting is slowly gaining acceptance on a state-by-state basis. Recently Golden Nugget Online signed up sports betting hotel deals in both West Virginia and Michigan.
Moreover, GNOG is gaining a reputation as having some of the best “matching” deposit rates. Apparently, if you deposit $1,000, GNOG will match those amounts in matched play up to $20,000. This is going to make online gaming extremely popular in the states where it is approved.
Once the company announces its Q4 earnings, we will have more detailed financial information to value the stock. At that point, I believe it will become apparent how cheap GNOG stock is compared to DKNG stock. The arbitrage between the two stocks’ valuation will likely quickly close.Golden Nugget Online Gaming Investor Relations
Moreover, Golden Nugget Online Gaming made it clear it wants to have access to capital by being public. Here is what that means on a practical basis. They are going to push up the stock before selling equity.
In effect, this was a very smart move by Fertitta. He did not follow the typical route of giving PIPE hedge funds a discount at $10 per share like most SPACs. By selling shares at a much higher price, there will be less dilution and a higher upside for GNOG shareholders.
So, if you believe my calculations, you now have an early insight into what will likely happen. The bottom line is GNOG stock is worth at least 65% more or $33.92 per share.Golden Nugget Online Gaming Offerings
On the date of publication, Mark R. Hake did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article.Golden Nugget Online Gaming Stock
Mark Hake runs the Total Yield Value Guidewhich you can review here.
Register here: http://gg.gg/vwx9q
https://diarynote.indered.space
© Source: Maridav/Shutterstock, Inc. a woman smiling while using a slot machine in a casino. representing gambling stocks
*Golden Nugget Online Gaming Investor Relations
*Golden Nugget Online Gaming Offerings
*Golden Nugget Online Gaming Stock
About GNOG Golden Nugget Online Gaming, Inc. Is a leading online casino gaming company that is indirectly wholly owned by Tilman J. It is considered the market leader by its peers and was. Golden Nugget Online Gaming offers a variety of deposit & withdrawal methods to ensure all players have a streamlined & convenient gaming experience.
About Golden Nugget Online Gaming. Golden Nugget Online Gaming is a leading online gaming company that is considered a market leader by its peers and was first to bring Live Dealer and Live Casino.
With Golden Nugget Online Gaming (NASDAQ:GNOG) facing massive uncertainty on multiple fronts, investors should avoid GNOG stock for now.© Provided by InvestorPlace a woman smiling while using a slot machine in a casino. representing gambling stocks
As I’ve noted in the past, Golden Nugget has to deal with a lot of competition in the online gambling space.
The approaching end of the novel-coronavirus pandemic and the precarious financial position of Golden Nugget’s owner are also making GNOG stock riskier.
As I wrote in my Sept. 28 column on Golden Nugget, online gambling is set for fast growth, but there’s not too high a bar to entry. As companies continue to enter the online gaming space, Golden Nugget could get squeezed.
I cited MGM Resorts (NYSE:MGM) as one large, tough potential competitor for Golden Nugget. The company received meaningful financial backing from internet giant IAC (NASDAQ:IAC). And indeed, MGM has already launched sports-betting operations, along with online card games, in New Jersey, the only state in which Golden Nugget Online Gaming was reportedly licensed as of Dec. 15.More Competition, the Pandemic and GNOG Stock
Another tough competitor for Golden Nugget is Rush Street Interactive (NYSE:RSI), or RSI, which operates an online-gaming and sports-betting company in New Jersey and Pennsylvania.
According to a Seeking Alpha contributor, WY Capital, RSI is the number one player in iGaming. Game slot cashback 100. The article claims RSA has a 16.3% market share, mostly thanks to its presence in Pennsylvania where it has a 28% market share.
Moreover, Golden Nugget is planning to expand into Pennsylvania where, by the way, BetMGM, MGM’s online component has also set up shop.
Gallery: 4 Entertainment Stocks That Could Bounce Back Post-Quarantine (InvestorPlace)
RSI could take market share away from Golden Nugget. With vaccines for the coronavirus being continuously distributed in the U.S., within the next four or five months, a majority of the population will likely have been vaccinated against the coronavirus.
At that point, the popularity of online gambling is likely to drop sharply as tens of millions of vaccinated consumers, beyond tired of sitting at home and looking at screens, take vacations and go to movies, restaurants, sporting events, etc.
Thus, there’s a good chance that Golden Nuggets’ growth in New Jersey could sharply decelerate starting this spring, causing the company’s financial results to tumble and resulting in a big slump by GNOG stock.Fertitta’s Financial Woes
Last month, InvestorPlace’s Sarah Smith noted that Tilman Fertitta, Golden Nugget’s founder and owner, had “been discussing an initial public offering for some of his holdings.”
As a result, investors may wonder whether Fertitta could look to sell some of his GNOG stock, causing the shares to tumble.
And as Smith noted, the billionaire has “borrowed hundreds of millions of dollars,” generally creating uncertainty for his empire, including Golden Nugget Online Gaming.
Perhaps partly due to Fertitta’s issues, since Dec. 29, when the SPAC with which Golden Nugget combined, Lancadia Holdings II, became Golden Nugget Online Gaming, the shares have tumbled nearly 20%.The Bottom Line on GNOG Stock
Golden Nugget is facing tough competition and uncertainties related to the finances of its owner and the coming end of the coronavirus pandemic.
Meanwhile, the company’s second-quarter operating income from New Jersey operations came in at a not-exactly-huge $8.5 million.
Given these points, I believe that the stock’s risk-reward ratio is negative, and I continue to recommend that investors sell it.
On the date of publication, Larry Ramer did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.
Larry has conducted research and written articles on U.S. stocks for 13 years. He has been employed by The Fly and Israel’s largest business newspaper, Globes. Among his highly successful contrarian picks have been solar stocks, Roku, and Snap. You can reach him on StockTwits at @larryramer. Larry began writing columns for InvestorPlace in 2015.© Source: rawf8/Shutterstock.com A man looking at a computer with poker chips on the screen.
Golden Nugget Online Gaming (NASDAQ:GNOG) went public on Dec. 30, after merging with a SPAC (special purpose acquisition company) called Landcandia Holdings II. Based on my calculations, GNOG stock is worth considerably more, up to 65% more, based on a simple comparison with Draft Kings (NASDAQ:DKNG).© Provided by InvestorPlace A man looking at a computer with poker chips on the screen.
Keep in mind that Golden Nugget Online Gaming is not in any way related to Golden Nugget Casinos (based in Las Vegas and Laughlin).
That company is privately held by Tilman Fertitta. However, Fertitta’s interests do own about 52% of GNOG stock, but we don’t yet know the exact amount of shares for two reasons.Golden Nugget Online Gaming Merger
First, it appears that Golden Nugget Online Gaming does not even have its own investor relations website yet. Its NJ gaming site does not have any information on the company as a public entity. Second, the company has not filed with the SEC its final share count information, nor have Fertitta’s interests filed.
Moreover, this deal was a little different than most SPAC mergers. There was no PIPE deal (private investment in public equity) with institutional investors. That is a great thing for the public investors since they now own about 46% of the GNOG stock. This is based on nothing more than page 5 of the company’s investor presentation from July.
It is also the reason why it took two shareholder meetings in December for the deal to close. Moreover, this is making the stock a bit more volatile than most other SPAC mergers. For example, it appears a lot of investors have been selling their shares in GNOG since the merger closed on Dec. 30.
Nevertheless, after carefully studying the company’s presentation and its Q3 earnings report, GNOG stock is worth considerably more than its present price. Here is why.What Golden Nugget Online Gaming Is Worth
GNOG stock is trading for about 12 times its revenue on an enterprise value basis. But DKNG stock trades at about 19.5 times EV-to-sales.
Gallery: 7 Stocks Warren Buffett Should Consider (InvestorPlace)
Therefore, assuming both companies should have a similar or fairly similar valuation as the only two online gaming stocks, GNOG should move up in value. This implies that GNOG stock should trade about $33.92 per share or 65% above its price on Jan. 5 ($20.59).
Here is how I came up with this valuation calculation. First, the slide presentation from the original June 29 announcement indicates on page 5 that about 68.3 million shares will be outstanding. Therefore at today’s price, the market capitalization for GNOG stock is $1.406 billion.
Next, to derive the pro forma enterprise value, we need to add in the net debt after the merger closed. We won’t know the final numbers until its Q4 earnings release later this month. But the presentation indicates there will be $150 million in debt and $88 million in cash. That works to net debt of $62 million. Therefore, the enterprise value (EV) is $1.468 billion.
Now we can estimate the company’s pro forma 2021 enterprise value-to-sales ratio. Based on its presentation, again on page 5, Golden Nugget Online Gaming will make $122 million in sales during 2021. This also corresponds with its Q3 numbers where it made $25.9 million in net revenue. On a run-rate basis, that works out to $103.6 million. the 2021 estimate of $122 million in gaming sales assumes 17.7% growth during 2021.
As a result, we can derive the EV-to-sales ratio by dividing $1.468 billion (EV) by $122 million (2021 sales estimate). That works out to 12 times.
This is significantly below DraftKings’ EV-to-sale ratio. Based on my estimates their valuation is 19.5 EV-to-sales.What to Do With GNOG Stock
Based on this information we can multiply 19.5 times the $122 million in 2021 sales. That gives GNOG stock a $2.379 billion EV. After subtracting the $62 million in net debt, the target market cap should be $2.317 billion. Now, since we know there are 68.3 million shares (see above), the price should be $33.92. This price is 65% above its $20.59 price on Jan. 5.
Fortune spins. Online sports betting is slowly gaining acceptance on a state-by-state basis. Recently Golden Nugget Online signed up sports betting hotel deals in both West Virginia and Michigan.
Moreover, GNOG is gaining a reputation as having some of the best “matching” deposit rates. Apparently, if you deposit $1,000, GNOG will match those amounts in matched play up to $20,000. This is going to make online gaming extremely popular in the states where it is approved.
Once the company announces its Q4 earnings, we will have more detailed financial information to value the stock. At that point, I believe it will become apparent how cheap GNOG stock is compared to DKNG stock. The arbitrage between the two stocks’ valuation will likely quickly close.Golden Nugget Online Gaming Investor Relations
Moreover, Golden Nugget Online Gaming made it clear it wants to have access to capital by being public. Here is what that means on a practical basis. They are going to push up the stock before selling equity.
In effect, this was a very smart move by Fertitta. He did not follow the typical route of giving PIPE hedge funds a discount at $10 per share like most SPACs. By selling shares at a much higher price, there will be less dilution and a higher upside for GNOG shareholders.
So, if you believe my calculations, you now have an early insight into what will likely happen. The bottom line is GNOG stock is worth at least 65% more or $33.92 per share.Golden Nugget Online Gaming Offerings
On the date of publication, Mark R. Hake did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article.Golden Nugget Online Gaming Stock
Mark Hake runs the Total Yield Value Guidewhich you can review here.
Register here: http://gg.gg/vwx9q
https://diarynote.indered.space
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